Let Ciesta ease and secure your estimates to ensure your success
Profitable investments require secure estimates of projects in early phases. There is also an increasing need to analyse a larger set of project design combinations in order to optimize the field’s economy. Ciesta is a software application for weight and cost estimates for offshore fields designed to meet these demands.
If used as a 3rd party verification tool, Ciesta will be able to play a decisive role for later project phases (EPC) as well.
Estimates in Ciesta are based on a huge database of historical data/information. The tremendous database is built up (formatted and systematized) in a detailed and intelligent way, which makes it possible to efficiently build a new estimate based on compound details. These data may be applied by an experienced estimator in order to select the best data foundation for an estimate. Ciesta allows the estimator to select a set of historical data items that is best suited for the project in question. This is done through extensive use of graphical presentations of weight and cost historical data items for estimates at different levels. This graphical presentation allows the estimator to detect trends in the underlying historical data set as well as selecting the most relevant set of historical data items.
What constitutes a relevant set of data items must be based on the estimator’s professional judgements. Thus, Ciesta is not a black box producing estimates beyond the estimators’ control. On the contrary, Ciesta aims to make optimal use of the estimator’s professional competence and experience. Transparency, control and documentation of estimates are therefore top priorities in Ciesta.
Ciesta produces risk analysis for aggregated weight and cost estimates. This is done by using a Monte Carlo simulation technique based on variations in the applied historical data items. Since the risk spread is assessed by using historical data the risk analysis will have an empirical foundation rather than subjective assessments from expert panels. The risk analysis will give the estimator references for assessing expected values and allowances based on a Gaussian probability distribution (normal distribution). Other probability distributions such as triangular, beta and lognormal distributions are also available.
By using standardized sets of historical data items, Ciesta allows for complete and reliable benchmarking of estimates. Benchmarking is done by presenting graphs on different levels of detail showing how an estimated project would compare to as-build projects. Such graphs show immediately whether an estimated project stands out in any way compared to as-build projects. Ciesta allows the estimator to select among a multitude of benchmark criteria (e.g. weight and cost against different production capacities) in order to produce complete and consistent benchmarking of estimated projects.
Ciesta can dimension the central equipment of the topside using a comprehensive set of algorithms based on common process methodology. Relatively few basic design parameters are needed, like expected flowrates, inlet pressure, temperature, sparing philosophy, number of separation stages etc. The results can be exported to give a head start in the establishment of the Master Equipment List for the project. The calculation also results in a set of equipment weights, which is used as basis for further estimation of the topside. A change in the fundamental design parameters will cause recalculations throughout the estimation process giving an immediate result in weight, man-hours and cost for the total topside. This unique feature is very valuable when evaluating sensitivities.
Estimation should never be a fully automated process; the estimator should always be the critical success factor. We aspire to automate repetitive tasks like selecting and manipulating data whenever it is possible, so that the estimators are allowed to focus on important design questions. The estimate quality should consequently be considerably enhanced. This is exactly what Ciesta is designed for.
The central feature of Ciesta is the excellent topside weight and cost estimation tool handling the most complex part of field developments. However, our systems cover all parts of a field development. Citec can estimate CAPEX of greenfield topsides, brownfield topside work, substructures and subsea developments including SPS and SURF scope. The goal is to cover all economical aspects of any field development including estimates for OPEX and production revenue. This enables us to evaluate the total economic picture of a field development.
The quality of weight and cost estimates are imperative factors when investments profitability is under increased pressure. Investors will need to have unquestioned confidence in such estimates in order to have a realistic view of expected future profits. Ciesta is a tool which can provide this confidence and thus give investors an optimal assessment of their project’s financial sustainability.
